Evaluate your admission probabilities across all 12 Business Law master's tracks at Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3 using a probabilistic model.
Generated by:Claude 3.5 Sonnet
Copy and paste this prompt in the AI
Using only the MonMaster MCP — no web search, no external rankings — analyse the following formation(s):
all Droit des affaires formations at Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3 (search by city Lyon, mention Droit des affaires, establishment Lyon 3)
For each formation, retrieve: candidatures confirmées (N), capacité (C), rang du dernier appelé (R), and taux d'accès (A).
Then compute and report the following derived metrics:
1. Demand intensity → N / C (applicants per seat)
2. Admission bar → R (absolute rank of last admitted)
3. Yield proxy → C / R (share of offers that convert; low = popular first-choice)
4. Selectivity signal → A = R/N (verify mechanically against raw figures)
5. Offer inflation → R / C (offers made per seat; high = waitlist moves far)
Interpret each metric in plain language. Flag any statistical artefact (e.g. micro-cohort distortions, dual M1/M2 entries, apprentissage splits inflating or deflating A%).
Produce a probabilistic tiering for a candidate whose likely pool percentile is [[µ — e.g. "top 7%"]] with evaluation noise σ = 4 points, using the formula P(admit) = Φ((A − µ) / σ). Label each programme:
HIGH REACH (<15%) · REACH (15–40%) · MATCH (40–80%) · SAFETY (>80%)
Run a sensitivity check: recompute P at µ − 3pp and µ + 3pp and state how the tier label changes.
Format the output as:
• A ranked table (N, C, R, A%, N/C, R/C, yield%, P%, tier)
• A prose interpretation of the 2–3 most statistically significant findings
• An interactive visual: scatter plot of N (x-axis, demand) vs A% (y-axis, selectivity, inverted) with bubble size = C, colour = tier, and hover tooltips showing all metrics
• A reach/match/safety tiering card per programme
Do not use any data source other than MonMaster MCP tool calls.
After completing the standard analysis above, compute the joint probability of receiving at least one offer at MATCH tier or above across the full portfolio, assuming independent admission decisions:
P(≥1 match) = 1 − ∏(1 − Pᵢ) for all programmes where tier ∈ {MATCH, SAFETY}
Present this as a single summary statistic and state which 2–3 programmes contribute most to the joint probability (the "load-bearing" choices in the portfolio).
top 7%top % of pool
Evaluation noise σ = 4 points
Programs
12
Lyon 3 Business Law
Total capacity
209
seats
Avg access rate
8.9%
across tracks
Total applicants
7,897
N (confirmed)
Tier Distribution at µ = top 7%
HIGH REACH (<15%)0
REACH (15-40%)0
MATCH (40-80%)0
SAFETY (>80%)0
Track
N
C
R
A%
Intensity (N/C)
Inflation (R/C)
Yield%
P(admit)
Classification
N = confirmed candidacies · C = overall seats · R = last called rank · A% = R/N · N/C = demand intensity · R/C = offer inflation · Yield% = C/R · P% = Φ((A%−µ)/σ)
Joint formula: P(≥1) = 1 − ∏(1 − Pᵢ) for all programs in MATCH or SAFETY tiers.
Structural Finding: all programs are HIGH REACH at µ ≤ ~17%
The most accessible program in the portfolio (Droit Privé International et Comparé, A%=18.1%) only becomes REACH when µ exceeds ~14%. For any candidate estimated below the top 14% of the competing pool, the entire Lyon 3 Business Law catalogue sits in HIGH REACH. This reflects Lyon 3's genuine market position as one of France's most selective law faculties for Business Law masters.
Offer Inflation Anomaly (R/C ≥ 5×)
Three programs — Droit International & Comparé des Affaires (R/C=5.80), Coopération Économique (R/C=6.50), and Risques Émergents (R/C=5.47) — issue 5–6× as many ranked offers as available seats. This means the waitlist clears deeply: a candidate ranked 40th at a C=10 program may still receive an offer. Low yield (15–18%) reflects these programs being lower on most candidates' preference lists; their A% understates the real waitlist opportunity window.
Micro-Cohort Distortion (C=10 programs)
Droit International & Comparé and Coopération Économique both have C=10 seats. At this scale, a swing of 2–3 students (who accept or decline) shifts A% by ~3–5pp. Treat their tier classifications as carrying additional ±2pp confidence interval on top of the σ=4pp already baked in.
Fusions Acquisitions & UCD — Special Cases
The M2 in Fusions Acquisitions is offered en apprentissage, meaning students must secure employer contracts to access places. This compresses effective C below the reported figure of 15. The reported A%=5.1% and R=20 reflect the M1 entry, but M2 progression depends on a parallel employer-match process. Treat this as a two-gate selection. Similarly, Propriété Intellectuelle (N=1,448) is the most demanded program, but the UCD double-degree option attracts a high-mobility sub-pool that shifts waitlist dynamics.
Strategic Portfolio Recommendation
At µ = top 7%, Lyon 3 Business Law functions as a reach-only cluster. Portfolio strategy should add MATCH-tier programs from other institutions (Paris 1 Sorbonne, Montpellier, Toulouse Capitole, or Strasbourg in the same mention) to build joint probability above 50%. Within the Lyon 3 portfolio, Droit Privé International et Comparé (A=18.1%) and Fiscalité du Marché de l'Art (A=16.2%) are the gateway entries and should be listed first in preferences. Coopération Économique and Droit International & Comparé offer an asymmetric waitlist opportunity given their high R/C ratios.
This use case illustrates how an AI assistant can leverage indicators from the MonMaster database to perform an advanced, probabilistic admission portfolio analysis.
By guiding the AI with a structured prompt, it crosses raw metrics (confirmed candidacies, seats capacity, and last called rank) to compute demand intensity, offer inflation, and admission probabilities.
Statistical Findings for Lyon 3
Based on the data extracted from the MCP server for the Business Law mention at Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3, the AI highlighted several key structural insights:
1. High Selection Across All Tracks
For an average candidate, Lyon 3’s Business Law catalogue is predominantly a HIGH REACH cluster (admittance probability $<15%$). The most accessible track in terms of raw acceptance rate is Droit Privé International et Comparé (18.1%), which only transitions into a REACH label for candidates in the top 14% of the pool.
2. Offer Inflation (High R/C Ratio)
Three programs — Coopération Économique, Droit International & Comparé, and Risques Émergents — show $R/C$ ratios above 5.4×. This indicates that their waitlist moves very deep, issuing 5 to 6 times more admission offers than actual seats. This offsets low conversion yields (15–18%).
3. Micro-Cohort Variance
Tracks like Droit International & Comparé and Coopération Économique only offer 10 seats. At this small scale, minor candidate shifts (2 or 3 student choices) can swing the acceptance rate by 3 to 5 percentage points, introducing higher estimation variance.
Step-by-Step Dashboard Guide
Adjust the dashboard below to evaluate your application profile:
Pool Percentile µ Slider: Move the slider to represent your estimated percentile in the application pool (e.g. top 7% means you estimate your folder is in the top 7% of applicants).
Joint Probability (Portfolio Tab): Computes the probability of receiving at least one offer from your chosen MATCH or SAFETY programs.
Interactive Scatter Chart (Chart Tab): Displays raw demand $N$ against acceptance selectivity $A%$, with coordinate tooltips showing all derived metrics.